Luis Severino suddenly linked to Cubs

Geoff Burke - USA Today Sports

Dustin Riese · Senior Writer · 2 hours ago

You knew that once the Winter Meetings got underway, which they have now, things would start to pick up in the rumor mill. As of now, Michael Soroka has been the only deal to take place at the Winter Meetings, as he agreed to a contract with the Diamondbacks on Monday. You have also heard the rumors about Kyle Schwarber and how the Pirates have presented him with a four-year deal, as his market seems to be picking up.

None of that matters at this point, as much of the talk continues to center on the Chicago Cubs and whether they will do something to improve their roster. Adding a big-name starting pitcher seems to be the talk right now, but most fans would love for them to go out and get a bat. This offense was good, but far too inconsistent again last season.

When it comes to the pitching, there were multiple reports that the Cubs and Zac Gallen had struck a multi-year deal with an annual salary of around $22 million. Those reports were quickly debunked, but at the very least, they show the Cubs are being aggressive and may very easily have an offer in place for at least one front-line starter.

Now, having an offer in place and actually getting a player are two different things, as the Cubs have struggled to close the deal on players in the past, and that very easily could happen again. If that is the case, the Cubs need a fallback plan, and the trade market appears to be the fallback when you look at all the options available.

Joe Ryan and Sandy Alcantara are the two names being mentioned most with the Cubs, but as the Winter Meetings got rolling, a new name popped up: Luis Severino, who is suddenly being discussed as an option for the Cubs. When you talk about a pitcher filled with potential, but coming with an interesting history, Severino is undoubtedly one that comes to mind, as a rash of injuries and inconsistent play have hampered the overall results.

When healthy, the 31-year-old has proven to be a legitimate starter, which was evident during the 2018 season when he went 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA. That came after going 14-6 in 2017 with a 2.98 ERA, as those were the best of the Severino days. Since then, Severino has struggled with health and consistency, posting just one double-digit-win season since 2018, which came in 2024, when he went 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA in his final year in New York.

Struggles aside, Severino has still gone 73-55 in his career, but with an ERA hovering around 3.9, there is still plenty left to be desired. Given his performance in 2024, Severino was one of the more highly sought-after free agents on the market, and he shockingly signed a three-year deal with the Sacramento Athletics for $67 million, the largest contract in franchise history.

Now, after a rough first season with the Athletics, Severino is being floated as a trade candidate, but honestly, that could be the best thing for his career going forward. When you look back at the season that was for the right-hander, the word disappointment comes into play as Severino went 8-11 with a 4.54 ERA. Perhaps even more disappointing was the walks-to-strikeouts ratio of 50-to-124, as he saw his strikeout rate drop significantly.

Normally, a season like that would cause some concern should a team trade for him, but Severino's season can be defined as two different seasons. At home, he posted a 6.01 ERA in 15 starts, while posting a 3.02 ERA in 14 road starts. That goes to show how difficult it is to pitch in Sacramento, as he was at his best away from home.

The road ERA is what teams like the Cubs are looking at, as that alone is something to consider when pitching at Wrigley. When the wind blows out, sure, you can have some inflated ERAs, but as you have seen the past few seasons, the wind doesn't blow out nearly as much as it once did. You also have those cold-weather months to begin and potentially finish the season, and that alone would play right into the hands of Severino, who is no stranger to getting ground balls.

His numbers alone at home screamed 'DFA candidate,' but given how he pitched on the road, the Athletics had no choice but to leave him in. The question now becomes, can they afford to do that this season, knowing that he will be forced to pitch a handful of games at that park again? That doesn't seem likely for a guy signed to that much money, and for two years of control at roughly 24 million per season, he is a bargain for a middle-of-the-rotation arm.

Sitting with an average fastball of 96 MPH, not only can Severino locate that pitch, but his ability to sink that fastball ranks him up there as one of the better groundball pitchers in the game. With that comes an 87 MPH change-up, his elite 87 MPH slider, as those tend to be his three go-to offerings, with the slider being the better of his off-speed pitches.

Severino is, however, more than just a three-pitch guy as he adds a 95 MPH sinker, 83 MPH sweeper, and an 87 MPH cutter to his mix, giving him plenty of pitches to play with. He turns 32 in February, and with two relatively cheap years of control left, he is the perfect trade candidate for the Cubs as he fits their ballpark and rotation about as perfectly as anyone.