Why Brad Keller is the free agent the Cubs can’t afford to lose

Matt Marton - USA Today Sports

Dustin Riese · Senior Writer · 5 hours ago

There were many players who led to the Cubs' overall success, as most of the Cubs' roster had what you might call career years. Some of those players you saw coming as Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki, and Cade Horton were a small list of names for guys you expected to break out at some point.

Then you have the list of unsung heroes no one expected, with Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Carson Kelly, and Pete Crow-Armstrong topping it. Apart from that, there is one guy from last season's team that not only came out of nowhere, but you could make the case that he was the MVP of their pitching staff in right-hander Brad Keller.

Signed as a Minor League free agent ahead of Spring, the former Royals starter turned relief arm was given an Invite to Spring with an opportunity to make this club. Not only did he take the opportunity and run with it, but after posting near triple-digit velocity most of the Spring and dominating hitters, the Cubs had no choice but to add them to their roster.

Boy, are they glad they did, as Keller was not only the MVP of the Cubs' pitching staff when you look at all the roles he filled, but he was arguably the biggest surprise of any reliever during the 2025 season. Now a free agent for the second straight season, both Keller and the Cubs have expressed their interest in keeping him here, but you can rest assured that he will have a much bigger market this season than he had last season.

A big reason for what is expected to be an active market for Keller was his ability to serve as both a starter and a dominant reliever. Although his 42-59 record may not be what teams are looking for, his 4.14 ERA suggests that many of his losses may not stem from him struggling but instead from a lack of talent around him.

That is why multiple teams, including the Houston Astros and New York Yankees, are looking at him to be a starter for them in 2026, and if that is the case, you can kiss any reunion with the Cubs goodbye. However, should the Cubs want him badly enough, they could make him an offer he can't refuse, with two years at a high AAV or even three years.

When you look back at the season that was, you can see why the Cubs want Keller back and how much he would mean to this pen. Once a guy who was sitting in the 94-95 MPH range with his heater, Keller has unlocked extra velocity since moving to the pen, and that was on full display last season, when he averaged 97 MPH+ with his heater and was often seen touching 99-100 MPH.

With that fastball comes an elite 91 MPH tailing change-up, while also working in a slider that sits in the 87-89 MPH range. Having a three-pitch mix like that is what makes him such a dominant reliever and is another big reason teams are looking at him as a starter next season.

Up until last season, Keller was primarily a starter and appeared in 54 career relief appearances from 2018 (his MLB debut). Not only did he surpass that total last season, but he shattered it all while emerging as one of the game's best and most trusted arms in the late innings.

Across his career-best 68 games, Keller logged 69 2/3 innings, the most in any of his non-starting seasons. That alone made him the most-used arm in the Cubs' pen, and, surprisingly enough, it didn't phase him. What he did in those 68 games was nothing short of impressive, logging a 4-2 record and a 2.07 ERA.

Take his three shaky outings out of the picture, and that ERA is closer to 1.68, as he was the definition of a shutdown reliever. He also led the team with 34 holds, added three saves, and was near-perfect during the second half of the season, as he didn't allow an earned run from July 27 through the end of August.

Guys like Keller don't come around often, and even if last season was a blip on the radar, the Cubs may have found a gem they don't want to lose. Anytime you walk 22 and strikeout 75 in 69 innings, you are simply overpowering your opposition, and Keller did that virtually every time he stepped on the mound. Of all the outgoing free agents for the Cubs, you could argue that he is the most important piece to bring back.