Cubs and Diamondbacks: A trade match in the making?

Mark Rebilas - USA Today Sports

Dustin Riese - Senior Writer - Tuesday, June 03 2025

It's hard to believe that the MLB trade deadline is 59 days away. That is just the reality we face, as the MLB trade deadline will be here before we know it. Currently sitting at 37-22 and leading the NL Central by four games, the Cubs will be in the running to make some deals this season.

When you look at the Cubs' current roster and where they are sitting, it's hard to believe they are in the position they are in. Sure, they have the best offense in the National League and one of the best offenses in baseball, but their pitching remains a concern, raising questions about how much longer they can get by with the performances they have been producing.

As of Monday, the Cubs rank 19th in baseball with a 4.02 ERA for their starting staff and 12th in baseball for their bullpen, with a 3.63 ERA. That puts them in the middle of the pack overall, as they have a combined 3.86 ERA, which ranks them 18th among all teams. Had it not been for their bullpen becoming the best in baseball over the past three weeks, those marks would be even lower, as the bullpen has turned their season around.

While everyone expects the Cubs to make a move for a back-end reliever, the starting rotation continues to be the biggest issue for this team, and it's only a matter of time until the Cubs go out and address that need. With that said, there are plenty of names that will be available, and most of those names have been discussed this offseason.

Going off of that, several names are expected to be added to the list, and given what is going on in Arizona at the moment, the Diamondbacks could emerge as a legitimate trade partner for the Cubs for one of their starters.

In case you missed it, the Diamondbacks have already lost Jordan Montgomery for the season due to Tommy John surgery, and now it appears that Corbin Burnes is also heading for a season-ending Tommy John surgery. That would be a crushing blow for a team that was expected to compete for a Wild Card berth this season, and at 28-31, and fourth place in their division, the loss of Burnes may be the final blow that turns them into sellers.

Should that be the case, look for Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen to become legitimate trade partners for the rest of the league. If that happens, it opens the door for the Cubs to make a move for one of those pitchers. Of the two, Kelly seems the most likely to be dealt, as he is not only the oldest but also on an expiring contract.

A bit of a late bloomer when it comes to his MLB success, the 36-year-old Kelly is enjoying another solid season and currently has a 3.78 ERA across 12 starts. Although his velocity has dropped from 94 MPH to the 92-93 MPH range, Kelly is still doing a great job of limiting the walks and producing a high number of ground balls.

He has allowed far too much hard contact this season, but that is to be expected when you start to see a dip in velocity. Throw in a seven-million-dollar contract where only three million will be due after the deadline, and he seems like a great financial fit for this team as a back-of-the-rotation arm.

Gallen, on the other hand, is the more intriguing option, but also the one that would cost significantly more to acquire. A top-three Cy Young finalist in 2023, the 29-year-old three-time Cy Young vote getter has seen his performance take a massive decline over the past few years, and that is a concern for any team looking at him.

His performance this season alone is potentially costing him 10s of millions of dollars when he hits the open market, as his ERA currently sits at 5.54 through 12 starts. Several contributing factors have led to this, but the single most significant factor is the increased walk rate and the decline in strikeouts. His barrel% is up, his hard contact is up, and his groundball rate is down.

In other words, everything is trending the wrong way, and that is never a good thing for a pitcher on the right side of 30 headed for free agency shortly. Should Gallen be one of those guys who could benefit from a change of scenery, you have to like his chances to be in the Cubs rotation for several seasons.

After all, the velocity is still solid at 94 MPH while the curveball/change-up off-speed combination can still be lethal. This is a great problem to have if you are the Cubs, as they not only have the ammunition to make moves, but also know they will be in a position to make plenty of them, which is all you can ask for at this point.