High-Risk, High-Reward: Cubs bet on Connor Knox’s upside |
Dustin Riese
· · 3 hours ago
Just when you thought the Cubs got away from the pitching side of the draft, they went right back to it in round 18. Unlike most of the Cubs' arms taken in the draft that were physical specimens, Knox is much smaller, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have an MLB-sized frame.
Currently standing at 6-0 and 200 pounds, the George Mason righty has the size to be an MLB arm, but may need to add just a bit of strength, which is something he can do once he gets in the Cubs organization. Taken exactly 30 picks after Poteet at No. 541, there is a lot to like about Knox, but also some huge concerns. One of the biggest concerns is his overall body of work, as he has logged just 25 games in three years with the Patriots, 12 of which came as starts. While that is a small sample size, especially for three years, you have to dive into those 12 starts to see what the Cubs are looking at, and with a 3-4 record and a 6.11 ERA, there doesn't seem to be a lot of good in that line. While that is primarily true, 2025 saw Knox turn a massive corner, and that is what the Cubs are drafting him off of, as he showed a ton of potential this season. In eight games (six starts), Knox was one of the Patriots' more reliable arms, going 2-0 with a 3.29 ERA. Granted, he only threw 27 2/3 innings in those games, but the production was still there as he walked eight and struck out 28. He followed that up with nine strong innings on the summer circuit, allowing two runs in nine innings while striking out 10 and walking two. All you have to do to see his potential is look back at one of his more recent MLB Draft League starts, where he tossed five shutout innings of one-hit baseball, walking two and striking out five. Knox isn't someone that will blow you away, but with a fastball that sits in the 91-94 MPH range, he has learned how to pitch to his strengths, and this season he started to thrive off those strengths. Given that he had so much success this season as opposed to his previous two, Knox found himself as a late riser in this year's draft and went from an undrafted pitcher to an 18th-round pick. There is still a chance he elects to come back to school for one more season to build on 2025, but for now, the Cubs are hoping they can get him to sign for a slot value of close to $150,000. Even with his improved 2025 season, Knox is still extremely raw and has thrown just 53 collegiate innings thus far. Apart from this season, there have been some control issues, as he isn't known as a guy to miss bats. This is one of those pitchers who will need plenty of time to develop, as significant development is required for him to become the pitcher he aspires to be. The Cubs clearly want to develop him in-house, which is why they swung to get him in the 18th round. Grade C-: Another high-risk, high-reward type of pick, as Knox is nowhere near ready to make a difference in this league. Of all the pitchers, he may be the one who needs the most time to develop, as control issues and a lack of innings are major concerns. He started to iron out those control issues this season, but with 27 innings pitched in 2025, that equalled half his career total up to this point. The Cubs are going to need far more than 27 innings, let alone more than 53 innings from him if they want to consider him a prospect, but the longer he stays in their system, the better his chances become for him to be a building block for the minor leagues. Officially a 🐻 pic.twitter.com/9qEQKywMHy Connor Knox (@crosscutters) dazzled in his #MLBDraftLeague debut tonight, allowing just one hit over 5 strong innings.
The @MasonBaseball right-hander also sat 91-94 T95 with the fastball.
Line: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K@draftleaguedata | @knoxie_baseball pic.twitter.com/RyLym6q3wo
