High Risk or Smart Buy? Grading the Cubs’ move for Michael Soroka

Brad Mills - USA Today Sports

Dustin Riese · Senior Writer · 5 hours ago

It took long enough, but Jed Hoyer was finally able to make a move at the deadline, and as expected, it came from the pitching side of things. However, unlike an Edward Cabrera or Merrill Kelly type of move that would get the fans excited, this is more of a low-risk, high-reward play as the Cubs and Nationals have come together on a Michael Soroka deal in exchange for two prospects.

The once dominant ace of the Braves rotation, Soroka, has been hampered by injuries the past several seasons before finally getting a shot start this season with the Nationals. Soroka was linked to the Cubs several weeks ago along with several other starters, but his name only started to get some traction over the past seven days as the Cubs pulled the trigger to get a deal done.

Some may remember Soroka as the ace of the Braves staff as he went 13-4 during the 2019 season, posting a 2.68 ERA in the process. Since then, a series of Achilles injuries and even an arm injury have hampered him on the mound as he has had a long road back to becoming a reliable arm.

Take his one season out of the equation, and Soroka hasn't been great, with a 20-26 record and a 3.91 ERA. That includes a bumpy 3-8 record this season in 16 starts while posting a 4.87 ERA. Those numbers alone would infuriate most fans, and maybe most fans are infuriated by this move. Still, the bottom line is that Soroka gives the Cubs plenty of versatility and is a better option than Ben Brown and Colin Rea as a back-of-the-rotation guy.

While the numbers may show one thing, they don't tell the whole story, as Soroka has pitched to a 3.32 expected ERA this season. That alone shows you that he has been pitching better than the results indicate, and that alone is what the Cubs are banking on. While it is unclear what the Cubs plan for Soroka is, you have to believe that he will at least be allowed to start in the coming days before figuring out what to do when Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad return from their injuries.

Heading the Nationals' way as part of the deal are OF Christian Franklin and top-25 prospect Ronny Cruz, who the Cubs drafted in the third round in 2024. Franklin is a name that does make sense, as he was Rule 5 eligible this offseason, and it was unclear whether the Cubs would add him to their 40-man roster to protect him.

Primarily a left fielder for Iowa, Franklin can play any of the three outfield spots and has put up solid numbers this season, hitting .265 with eight homers and 41 RBIs. He has done that while taking 63 walks and striking out 80 times, as Franklin has emerged as a key piece for the Iowa lineup. Look for him to land on the Nationals' 40-man roster by season's end in an effort to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

Cruz, on the other hand, is the one who stings the most, as he is seen as the key piece to the deal. A third-round pick in 2024 out of high school, Cruz has yet to see action in full-season baseball, but has produced at a high level in rookie ball this summer and only got better as the season went on.

Across 48 games with the ACL Cubs, Cruz managed to hit .270 with two homers and 21 RBIs, as he is an extremely raw player at this point in his career. Raw or not, he still managed to hit better than .315 over his final 20 games and could find himself within the Nationals' top-10 prospects instantly as he could be a key piece to their future.

Grade C+: While the Cubs didn't give up a ton to make this trade, they did lose a high-level prospect and another prospect who could be knocking on the MLB door soon enough. Regardless of what the numbers show, Soroka has pitched better, especially as of late, as his strikeout rate is outstanding (25.4%), his walk rate is excellent (7.0%), and his barrel rate is great (6.4%).

It's hard to fathom how the poor numbers look that way, but when Soroka does get hit, he tends to get hit hard. What the Cubs like most about this move is Soroka's versatility, as he can pitch either in the rotation or out of the pen. Looking at his numbers as a starter this season, you could make the case that he should go do the pen immediately to replace the spots occupied by both Chris Flexen and Rea this season.

If that is the case, Soroka would have to get his velocity back up, as he has gone from around 95-96 to closer to the 93 MPH range over the past month. However, in 36 innings out of the Sox pen in 2024, Soroka was lights out, posting a slash line of 2.75 ERA, 39.0% K, 13.0% BB, .189/.303/.291. In other words, he dominated, and the Cubs are hoping he can rediscover that magic in Chicago.