Meet Eli Jerzembeck: High spin, high risk, high ceiling |
Dustin Riese
· · 3 hours ago
Once you get through the first 10 rounds of the MLB Draft, also known as the Slot Value picks, it always becomes a crapshoot from there on out. That is not to say there aren't talented players to be had in the later rounds. The fact is that the money available to these players isn't a lot, which is why you see some late-round picks go back to school to try and improve their draft stock.
The Cubs have been fortunate enough to retain most of their late-round picks over the past few seasons, and they are hoping that trend can continue again, as Eli Jerzembeck is someone the Cubs would love to have long-term. Taken in the 11th round, pick No. 331 overall, the former South Carolina right-hander was a surprise to see fall here, especially considering most teams target a reach prospect in this range. That isn't to say Jerzembeck isn't a reach, but viewed as a top-250 prospect, the Cubs could be getting a steal by having him fall to them in the 11th round. Unlike most of the pitchers the Cubs have pursued, who are physical presences on the mound, Jerzembeck isn't likely to intimidate many, as his 6-2 and 185-pound frame would suggest. Once viewed as one of the better Prep arms on the circuit, Jerzembeck made his presence felt from day one on the South Carolina campus as he went on to post a 2.84 ERA in just 31 innings, all while displaying terrific control and swing-and-miss stuff. The following two years have been difficult for him. Jerzembeck missed the 2024 season with Tommy John surgery, then missed the entire 2025 season with a stress fracture in his right elbow. That is two consecutive seasons without throwing a pitch, and because of that, Jerzembeck entered the transfer portal following this season, but now finds himself drafted by the Cubs. The big question is, does he stick with the portal to see if he can improve his stock next season, or does he sign with the Cubs and hope they give him the chance to develop? Whenever you take on a pitcher with an injury history, there are some risks involved. However, in this case, Jerzembeck poses a significant risk, and one that has an uncertain future given his extended absence from the game. While his fastball typically sits in the 92-93 mph range, he can occasionally reach 96 mph, which comes with good control and excellent movement. Along with his fastball comes his breaking ball, which could be his best pitch. From a velocity standpoint, Jerzembeck has seen his breaking ball consistently hover around 82 MPH, as it has become a true out pitch. What stands out most with that pitch is the elite spin rate that accompanies it, as he has achieved a spin rate of more than 3,000 RPM, which helps lead to late, sharp breaks. Jerzembeck is also starting to work his 87 MPH change-up in much more frequently, as he would love to become more of a three-pitch pitcher as opposed to the current two-pitch guy he is. While the potential is there, given what he has shown over 31 innings, he is about as risky as it gets when it comes to a selection, given how much time away from the field he has missed. Grade C-: This was one of the hardest grades to dish out when you look at the Cubs draft class. For starters, you are banking this selection solely on his potential, and if you look at what he has done when on the mound, he would've received a grade closer to a B. However, his massive injury history is a risk, and that alone kills his overall grade, as you don't know what he can bring to the table. Unlike most Juniors that get drafted, Jerzembeck has some leverage on the Cubs as his injury history has given him two more years of eligibility, thus making it easier for him to go back to college and not sign. The Cubs knew that going in, which is why they waited until this round to go after him, as they would be ok whiffing on him should the money not be there. Chicago Cubs select Eli Jerzembeck. Here he is as a freshman where he had a strong year, but TJS and a stress fracture cost him 2024 and 2025. A gamble on upside here in Round 11
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