Why Mitch Keller makes sense for the Cubs

Kamil Krzaczynski - USA Today Sports

Dustin Riese · Senior Writer · 4 hours ago

Sooner or later, the Cubs are going to make the starting pitching move everyone has been waiting for, as it's starting to seem like Tatsuya Imai and the Cubs are destined to get something done. Whether you want to believe it or not is up to you, but recent reports have the Cubs and Yankees as the most likely suitors for him, with the Yankees growing less optimistic by the day.

Until the Cubs actually pony up the money and spend for a high-priced arm, no one is going to believe a thing this front office says, as actions speak louder than words. When it comes to the words of Jed Hoyer himself, he has insisted that this team is going to make more moves, especially when it comes to the starting pitching front.

Although there are plenty of options still on the free agent market, apart from four or five guys, none of them scream difference maker, and the ones that do are going to cost the Cubs a ton of money that they may not be comfortable doing. That is where the trade market comes into play, as it is becoming increasingly likely that the Cubs will be forced to trade for another starting pitcher.

Several names have already been discussed with the Cubs this offseason as possibilities, but one that has been forgotten was available at the deadline last season: Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller. As bad as the Pirates have been for the better part of 25 years, one thing they have done a great job with is finding starting pitchers capable of making an impact.

Keller is one of those guys, and with three years of team control remaining, he may seem like a logical piece for the Cubs to target if he does become available again. Again, not listed as what you would call an Ace, Keller is still a reliable starting pitcher who would slide in nicely as the Cubs No. 2 or No. 3 starter this season, depending on how they line up that rotation.

This is someone as durable as they come, making at least 23 starts or more in each of the past five seasons, including four straight seasons of 29 or more starts. That is something most teams would dream of having in their rotation, but considering he has spent his entire career with the Pirates, Keller is often overlooked for what he can bring to a team.

A big reason for that is his overall record: Keller has posted a 42-65 mark with a 4.51 ERA. That included a 6-15 showing in 2025 to go with a 4.18 ERA, as Keller wasn't as good as he had been but also wasn't as bad as the record showed. Prior to his rough 2025 season, Keller had back-to-back double-digit winning seasons, logging 24 wins in 2023 and 2024, with a career-best 13 wins in 2023.

His ERA wasn't as good as you would expect it to be during that time, with a combined 4.41 during those years, but given how much better the Cubs offense is than the Pirates, you could expect him to be a much different pitcher on the Cubs team and someone who would bring with them far more success.

Even if the underlying numbers don't look great, you have to look under the hood to see the real value he brings, as Keller is also an innings eater who knows how to go deep into games. While he may have solid strikeout to walk rates that tend to sit around 3/1 and above, his sudden decrease in strikeout percentage is a tad concerning, especially for someone who doesn't have overpowering stuff.

Keller was at a career-best 25.5% strikeout rate in 2023, and since then, it has dropped significantly to barely 20% this season. The 25.5% is still above the league average, but given where most starters' strikeout rates are, that would still be considered average.

A second-round pick by the Pirates in 2014, Keller was always viewed as a frontline starter, as he was a top-50 prospect in Baseball for four straight seasons (2017-2020). Even if he has never lived up to the top-prospect billing he was hyped on, he has still been a very reliable arm with three years remaining on his five-year, $77 million extension he signed in 2024.

Even at a modest 55.7 million remaining on that deal, which is just over 18 million per season, the Pirates are not a team that likes to operate with big contracts, so you can imagine they are hoping someone picks that up. With the cost of starting pitchers going up by the day, even for the ones who don't deserve the money they get, Keller would be a reliable option for the Cubs and someone who wouldn't break the bank.