Win-win or future regret? Revisiting the Cubs-Astros blockbuster |
Anthony Pasquale
· · Friday, July 25 2025
There is no secret that the Cubs' trip to Houston last month has sparked some discussion about the trade that took place between the Cubs and Astros during the offseason. With the trade deadline approaching, revisiting this offseason trade has become popular.
The big ticket item of the trade was Kyle Tucker, whom the Cubs acquired in exchange for Hayden Wesneski, Isaac Paredes, and highly ranked prospect Cam Smith. Let’s start with Tucker, who has been a godsend for the Cubs’ lineup. We’re past halfway through the season, and the Cubs have scored the second-most runs in all of baseball, behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers. Tucker has already accumulated a 4.1 WAR in 2025 and was named an All-Star starter. He has 18 home runs and 57 RBI, to go along with 22 stolen bases and just one error in the field. Tucker’s presence in the Cubs' batting order has helped to unlock new levels for Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki as well. PCA is on pace for a 40/40 season, and Suzuki already has north of 25 home runs and 80 RBI, and we’re not even to August yet. Suzuki has already crushed his career bests this year, while PCA has joined Tucker in the conversation for MVP. The obvious concern with Tucker is the fact that he is a free agent at the end of the season, so you may be paying a hefty price for only one year from the superstar. While it remains to be seen how negotiations will unfold following the season, it appears Tucker enjoys playing in Chicago and likes the direction in which the organization is headed. "I think we have a great group of people. I think facilities-wise and everything's really nice, so it's been a great organization that I've been part of this year,” Tucker told Marquee Sports Network. “I think there's a good foundation here for success, not just this year, but afterwards." But when it comes to trades, there is always an inclination to say somebody won the trade or lost the trade. If Tucker does not stay in Chicago in the long term, that argument will likely shift toward Houston, which is also enjoying its assets. Wesneski had a 4.50 ERA in six starts before his season was cut short due to injury. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery and will be on the mend into next season. But the offensive pieces the Astros acquired have helped them into first place in the AL West. Paredes was acquired by the Cubs from Tampa Bay at last season’s trade deadline in a deal that sent Christopher Morel and a few minor league pitchers to the Rays — but Paredes’ heavy pull approach did not play as well at Wrigley. Jed Hoyer and Co. knew that the 2024 All-Star had some value and projected better at a stadium like Houston’s anyway, plus a plethora of infield prospects that could potentially play third if they were unable to net a third baseman in free agency. Paredes has 19 home runs through the halfway point of the season, as many as he tallied in the entire season last year. Meanwhile, the Cubs rank dead last in MLB in production from 3rd base — the position both Paredes plays and highly touted prospect Cam Smith were drafted to play. Smith has battled some early struggles and came out on the other side. Smith has a 2.0 WAR, thanks to a .269 batting average with seven home runs and 33 RBIs. He has been far more productive than Matt Shaw, the Cubs’ No. 1-ranked prospect, who is hitting just .216 this season and has looked overmatched at the plate at times. While acquiring Tucker is not something the Cubs will regret, the early trade graders think the Cubs may regret holding on to Shaw and letting Smith go in the trade. Smith’s athleticism has allowed him to play outfield for Houston, but the Cubs’ massive gap in production at third may look a lot different if Smith were playing there every night. The question to pose is, did the Astros want one of the two prospects, and did the Cubs decide to keep Shaw? Or, did the Astros want Smith, and did the Cubs know it was the only way to acquire Tucker? The latter, at this point, is far easier to defend for Jed Hoyer and company. This is not an article to say that Shaw will not pan out in the majors, or that he is bad in any way, shape, or form. All it is pointing out is the obvious success Smith has had so soon in the league — something the Cubs may regret not investing in as the ramifications of this trade affect both franchises for years to come.
