Cubs and Nolan Arenado? Why the timing might finally make sense

Eakin Howard - USA Today Sports

Dustin Riese · Senior Writer · 5 hours ago

For the better part of the past quarter-century, the NL Central has historically been a two-team or even a three-team race more often than not. While some of the contenders may change from year to year, the one constant was the St. Louis Cardinals, who typically fought for the division crown.

With the Cardinals trading away Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras since the offseason began, it has become abundantly clear that the Cardinals are in full-blown rebuild mode, which is unfamiliar territory for them. Knowing that, and knowing that it could take a few years for the Cardinals to get back to the level of play they have become accustomed to, the time is now for teams to poach the Cardinals for any of their remaining assets.

One of those assets is Nolan Arenado, and despite his saying he has no desire to be traded, the Cardinals are going to listen to offers for him, as he would be a great addition to many teams. Could the Cubs be one of those teams that tries to get Arenado in a trade?

It may seem far-fetched when the Cubs have Matt Shaw and the Cardinals rarely trade within their division, but if there was a time to make a trade like this, the time is now.

For a deal like this to happen, the Cardinals would almost certainly have to take on 31 million dollars of his salary, but given the situation the Cardinals are in, that is something they may consider, as it would allow them to get rid of one of their highest-paid players, while also receiving the assets needed to rebuild this organization.

Although he may be in his mid-30s and far from the player he once was, Arenado is still one of the better defensive third basemen in the game and has reached a point in his career where he may no longer be an everyday player. The Cubs would also have the option to use him as the DH, as he would give them plenty of roster flexibility going forward.

There is no question that when Arenado was at his best, he was arguably a top-five player in this league who found himself near the top of the MVP voting numerous times. This is a guy who has put together a .282 average across his career with 353 homers, as he has a shot to reach the 400-homer mark for his career.

While his best days were with the Rockies, which shouldn't come as a surprise, some may not even realize how good he was in Colorado, as they don't get the same visibility as some of the other teams do. From 2015-2019, Arenado emerged as one of the best players in the game, never hitting below .280 in any of those seasons and combining to hit .293 across those seasons.

He hit 199 homers during that time, including three seasons of 40 or more homers as he started to prove the type of player he was. Not only were the homers at an all-time high, but Arenado drove in at least 100 runs in each of those seasons, including three straight with at least 130 RBIs, as he was the definition of an elite power threat in the lineup.

Following the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Arenado began expressing his displeasure with the Rockies organization and hinted at a trade. The Rockies granted him that trade, which is how he ended up in St. Louis, where he has spent the past five seasons. While he hasn't been the same player in St. Louis as he was in Colorado, Arenado was still very good, hitting 64 homers in his first two seasons with the Cardinals and adding more than 200 RBIs.

At some point, you knew the decline was coming, and after hitting 26 homers in 2023, you started to see that decline as his age, mixed with a much different hitting environment, has started to take its toll on him. Since 2024, Arenado has seen his average drop to .259, including a .237 average this past season.

With that comes 28 combined homers, 12 coming this past season, with 123 combined RBIs. 51 came in 2025, posting one of the worst seasons of his career. Whether his age played a role in that is a separate matter, but Arenado also saw action in just 109 games, which shows he wasn't fully healthy either.

Considering where the Cubs are as a franchise, some may wonder why they would even entertain an idea like this. If they were forced to take on the contract, there would be no way they would even discuss a trade like this, but as long as the Cardinals are willing to take on all, or at least most, of his salary, it should be worth discussing.

Not only would you be adding a player who was on a hall of fame trajectory early in his career, but you are adding an insurance policy to the hot corner should Shaw once again go through his struggles. At the very least, he could become a platooning DH and a veteran bench piece, which would give the Cubs a far better option than any of their 2025 bench pieces.