Cubs Prospect Focus: DJ Herz |
We continue to move closer to the Cubs top 10 prospect list, and let me tell you, this is where things get fun. Not only are there two, if not three, Blue Chippers in this range, but several more guys have a chance to not only be on this roster, but could be significant contributors for years to come.
Checking in at No.13 on this list is David John (DJ) Herz. Like Caleb Kilian, who was discussed the other day, Herz was a top 10 prospect entering the 2022 season, but he saw himself drop out of the top 10 by the season's end. That wasn't because of bad performances or anything like that, but more so the Cubs system is deeper and better than before, which is why he fell a little bit. The 6-2 175 pounds left-handed was an eighth-round draft pick in 2019, but he has pitched far from that billing since coming into the Cubs system. Across 52 career Minor League games spanning three seasons, Herz has been about as consistent as you could hope for as he has gone 7-11 record-wise, but has posted a durable 3.75 ERA. After showing promise during the summer of 2019 and posting a 2.61 ERA across six Rookie league games, Herz broke out in a big way during the 2021 season, which was a pleasant surprise when you think about it. Unlike most players who took a step back after losing that year of action in 2020, Herz didn't and went on to earn the Organizational pitcher of the year in 2021. Across his 20 starts that season, Herz was just 4-4, but posted an excellent 3.11 ERA. Granted, he only worked 81 innings that season, but it was 81 dominating innings as he walked just 44 batters and struck out a whopping 131. He did all that while also holding hitters to just a .157 average. Entering 2022, Herz had as much upside as anyone in the system and continued to build off that 2021 showing the first part of the year with South Bend. However, it was a tale of two seasons for Herz as he fell apart in AA Tennessee, going 1-4 with a dismal 8.24 ERA in nine starts. If that wasn't bad enough, Herz also seemed to lose his command, which was not something he was accustomed to. Compare that to his South Bend stats, where he was 2-2 with a 2.26 ERA across 17 starts, and you have to wonder if Herz was struggling to adjust to a new level and that 2023 brings better days. Although he has started every game in his career thus far, the Cubs still don't know how he grades out, as he has proven to be a good starter and has the tools to be a solid reliever. Upon being drafted, Herz had the most electric arm of any North Carolina Prep start that summer, which is why the Cubs offered him good money for an eighth-round pick at 500K. That grades out to be fourth-round money, and Herz has pitched like a fourth-rounder more often than not. When he was drafted, Herz was sitting around 91 MPH with his heater, but he has only gotten better each season. He now consistently sits in the 95-96 MPH range, which is a good thing. After not throwing much of a change in high school, Herz has used that pitch more frequently in recent seasons, and it is starting to become a real weapon for him. He also scrapped the 84 MPH slider that he threw in high school and now goes with an over-the-top curve that sits at 78 MPH. That is not only his go-to pitch, but is the best curveball in the system. Should he continue to throw that change-up more frequently and get better with it, this is a three-pitch pitcher that you can use anywhere on this roster. Not only does he have bat-missing stuff, which is evident by his stats, but his crossfire delivery creates a ton of deception for a hitter. Left-handers have had a hard time hitting him since day one, but even righties don't fare well, given the carry on his fastball and overall break on his curve. His mechanics do compromise his control at times. However, his ability to locate his pitches will determine whether he remains in the rotation rather than head to the bullpen, where he could fill a high-leverage role. All things considered, he has done everything the Cubs could have asked from him and more, and will only get better.
